Background
The 2nd March 2017 NI Assembly election was called after James Brokenshire, the NI Secretary of State, dissolved the Assembly on 26 January. The dissolution of the Assembly was precipitated by the late former deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness resigning his position on 10 January and Sinn Féin refusing to nominate a replacement six days later. In his resignation letter Mr McGuinness stated that his reasons were that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) never fully embraced 'equality, mutual respect and all-Ireland approaches enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement'; 'shameful disrespect'; 'crude and crass bigotry'; the 'DUP's handling' of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal and the First Minister and DUP Leader Arlene Foster's refusal to 'stand aside, without prejudice, pending a preliminary report from an investigation.'
The election campaign clicked into gear in February and two leaders debates were held on UTV and BBC in the fortnight before election day. Polling occurred between 7am and 10pm on 2nd March and turnout was 64.8%, the highest since 1998 and up 10% on the May 2016 election.
Results
After the election, the DUP remained the largest party in the Assembly with 28 seats but lost 10 in comparison to 2016. SF experienced a large rise in support (+3.9% in vote share on 2016) and lost only one seat (Oliver McMullan's in East Antrim). The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) had another disastrous performance and return with 10 seats, down six from 2016. They lost several big-name candidates including Danny Kennedy, Sandra Overend and Jo-Anne Dobson. Party leader Mike Nesbitt also announced his intention to resign. The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) finished behind their nationalist rivals, SF, but held 12 seats and virtually retained the same vote share (-0.1%). The Alliance Party also had a good election as they held their 8 seats and experienced a 2.1% increase from 2016. The Green Party retained their 2 seats in North Down and South Belfast, People Before Profit lost Eamonn McCann in Foyle but held Gerry Carroll's seat in West Belfast while independent unionist Claire Sugden and the Traditional Unionist Voice's Jim Allister were returned in East Derry and North Antrim, respectively. Full results can be accessed here.
Analysis
The 2017 election has arguably been the most historic since 1998 given that unionist parties have lost their previously-held overall majority in the Assembly. For example, in terms of designations there are now 40 Unionists, 39 Nationalists and 11 Others. SF now only have 1 seat less than the DUP and, to further rub salt into the wounds of unionism, the SDLP has emerged as the largest opposition party. Also, no one party can now singly wield the Petition of Concern (POC) on issues like marriage equality.
For me, writing in the immediate aftermath of this election, this tremendous result for SF and diabolical outcome for all unionist parties, especially the UUP, can be explained by a number of reasons.
First, SF got their vote out
SF's party machine was really effective in getting the party's message of 'equality, respect and integrity' out on the doorsteps especially in the traditional stronghold of West Belfast as well as recent strongholds of Mid-Ulster, West Tyrone and Newry and Armagh. SF also, convincingly and surprisingly, outpolled the SDLP in their major bases of Foyle and South Down and delivered an impressive result in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, knocking out the DUP's chairman, Lord Maurice Morrow, in the process. Despite speculation that SF would lose a representative in North Belfast, both Gerry Kelly and Carál Ní Chuilín retained their seats.
Second, nationalism in general awoke from its slumber
Nationalist parties both performed badly in 2016 which commentators reckoned was due to nationalist voters being disaffected and not turning out in significant numbers. However, this was emphatically reversed as SF increased their share overall by almost 4% while the SDLP held steady. Combined SF/SDLP took 39.8% of first preference votes while DUP/UUP took 41%. In 2016 it was SF/SDLP 36% and DUP/UUP 41.8%. In the 2017 election, as Chris Donnelly put it, nationalism bit back.
Third, DUP actions in government, RHI scandal and the Foster factor
To a certain extent, several factors relating to the DUP - actions in government, the RHI scandal and the (lack of) leadership from Arlene Foster - influenced the outcome of March's election.
Actions in government included the removal of funding for Gaeltacht bursaries by Communities Minister Paul Givan in the run-up to Christmas while reinstating funding for Orange Order band instruments and the refusal to support marriage equality as well as implement Irish language Act nearly a decade after the St Andrews Agreement.
The DUP's mishandling of the RHI scandal was another important factor which partly produced the Assembly result. This featured whistle-blower allegations, the Jonathan Bell interview with the BBC's Steven Nolan, the alleged influencing of ministerial decisions by DUP special advisers, the alleged misuse of boilers for personal financial gain and the ownership of boilers by DUP members' relatives.
Arlene Foster's role in relation to the RHI crisis and tenure as First Minister has been seen as galvanising electoral support for "nationalists" and "others" and partly causing the rise in vote share for SF and the Alliance Party. Foster, prior to the collapse of the Assembly, refused to stand aside temporarily, 'without prejudice, pending a preliminary report from an investigation' and now continues this stance. In addition to this refusal, Foster cast Louth TD and SF President Gerry Adams as the unionist bogeyman and continuously labelled SF's election platform, comprising equality, respect and integrity, 'a radical republican agenda.' Further, the DUP leader characterised SF as a crocodile, stating at an event in early February: "If you feed a crocodile it will keep coming back for more.” This crocodile remark arguably snapped back at the DUP as people dressed up as crocodiles at Conradh na Gaeilge demonstrations and on their way to polling stations on election day. At the time of writing, Foster's re-nomination as First Minister hangs in the balance and it is entirely possible that nationalists might yet have cause to say "see you later alligator."
Fourth, reduction of seats from 108 to 90 makes a difference
This was the first election in the history of the Assembly that 90 members were elected rather than 108. Regarding the 18 seats that were cut, 16 would have been unionist if we had a 108-seater Assembly. Clearly, the reduction impacted on unionism, especially the DUP, but also the UUP, which has been reduced to an all-time low of 10 seats. The success of nationalists and effect of reduction in seats can also be seen if one estimates the likely result in the 2016 election had it been fought with 5-seat constituencies rather than six-seat constituencies and compares that result with this election. This was done by psephologist, Nicolas Whyte last December and a table (figure 1) featuring this estimation is show below.
Figure 1:
Finally, cross-community voting not damaging to unionism
A key tactic from DUP party members including Sammy Wilson and Edwin Poots was to blame Mike Nesbitt and the UUP for encouraging unionists to transfer votes in a cross-community manner with Poots describing the election of SDLP's Pat Catney in Lagan Valley as having done 'great damage to unionism.' In his eagerness to blame Nesbitt, Poots completely ignored the fact that cross-community votes helped the UUP's Rosemary Barton get elected in Fermanagh and South Tyrone while, ironically, Danny Kennedy may have had a stronger chance of ousting SF's Conor Murphy if he had received substantial cross-community transfers from the SDLP in Newry and Armagh.
(N.B. This article was written one day after the 3rd March 2017 - the date the full result of the 2017 NI Assembly election was made clear. It was not published until late November because the author was on placement at the Assembly up until September.)
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