Brexit: 3 months on ... still no plan

In this post I briefly consider where we are now since the EU Referendum.

Nearly three months have passed since the UK voted overall to exit the European Union and workers and business owners have been left in a state of limbo and uncertainty regarding the future. The public continues to be told by the British government that 'Brexit means Brexit' but we are still no closer to knowing what Brexit will entail.

Of course, the British Prime Minister, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Minister for the new Department of Exiting the EU are full of meaningless rhetoric but devoid of clear-cut substance. Why are they so devoid? Because little planning was done previously by Whitehall to prepare for this scenario. Why was there little planning? Because the previous British government under David Cameron's leadership backed the Remain campaign and did not give much credence to a potential Leave campaign victory.

This lack of substantial contingency planning in the event of a Leave vote has been disastrous as it has created much flux in British politics, precipitated heightened uncertainty for the economic outlook and left civil society including, workers, farmers, business owners and students, agonising over the long-term future.  

In addition to uncertainty engulfing England and Wales, which both voted for Leave, Scotland; Northern (N.) Ireland and Gibraltar, which voted to remain, have arguably been even more afflicted. It is also important to be aware of the current and future effects of the Brexit vote on the Republic of Ireland and the other 26 EU member states.  

Courtesy +James Nelson 

The North, in particular, will possibly feel the worse effects of Brexit given its considerable dependence on EU membership (especially in relation to agriculture, trade and structural funding), its historically weak economic standing in contrast to Great Britain and its unique position of sharing a land border with another EU member state - the Republic of Ireland. Those who voted for Brexit, especially in Great Britain, are mostly indifferent to the unique position of N. Ireland within the UK and would not have accounted for its welfare while casting their vote. Indeed, the EU membership referendum was fought over British (mostly English) interests such as immigration and UK border control rather than the welfare of all constituent areas.

In N. Ireland, organisations, such as the Centre for Democracy and Peace Building, and BBC NI are trying to navigate through the mire by producing publications and TV programmes relating to planning for the future in the aftermath of the Leave vote.

On the Centre for Democracy and Peace Building's behalf, Queen's University Belfast academics, Professor David Phinnemore and Dr Lee McGowan, have produced the report 'After the EU Referendum: Establishing the best outcome for Northern Ireland' which aims to take stock of the situation, make an educated estimation about what will happen in the immediate future and explore the North's potential options.

In addition to discussing the possible ramifications of keeping the status quo and considering existing options for outside the EU, the report also provides two eye-catching options relating to 'a partial Brexit' and a 'bespoke arrangement' for outside the EU. For me, the 'partial Brexit' option, drawing inspiration from the Reverse Greenland option and the Dalriada Document, is particularly intriguing as it suggests how the UK might stay in the EU but 'with those parts of the UK that voted to 'leave' moving outside key areas of EU integration and cooperation.' Disappointingly, the report does not consider the options of a second Scottish independence referendum nor an Irish border poll given the calls that have come from both Scotland and the island of Ireland since the Brexit vote.

Phinnemore and McGowan also note that 'a key challenge for all concerned is to recognize the issues and think creatively about how they might be addressed in the light of the EU referendum outcome.' To this end, the authors scratch the surface of this process by providing 'a range of issues of particular concern' in addition to 'a number of questions about the implications of a UK withdrawal from the EU.' These core issues include agriculture, trade and investment, the border and the free movement of people/goods as well as structural funding and citizens' rights.

Journalist, Jim Fitzpatrick, has also recently reported on the Brexit aftermath locally, exploring how immigration curbs could affect the NI economy. What his documentary shows is that, although there have been no drastic effects on the NI economy in July and August such as an economic contraction, uncertainty, especially over future access to the EU labour market and farm subsidies, is building. Blame for this was pointed in the direction of Leave campaigners, who, in the words of Ulster Farmers Union President, Barclay Bell, 'are people [e.g. David Davis] so keen to leave but haven't got a blueprint there.' Bell said this after informing Fitzpatrick that the Department for Exiting the EU has corresponded with the Ulster Farmers Union to ask what ideas the latter has regarding a replacement for the EU's Common Agricultural Policy!

While some of those who were involved in contributing to this situation of growing anxiety and uncertainty including Mr Cameron and Nigel Farage MEP are departing the political stage, it has been left to those still at Westminster, their counterparts in the devolved administrations and legislatures as well as civil society to pick up the pieces.